3, TDI: The second round of price hike starts from a low base, yet the upward momentum is accelerating
TDI clearly reflects how swiftly the market has shifted from correction back to firmness. The first round of price increases was most pronounced in import-dependent consuming markets. From pre-crisis levels up to the April peak, TDI prices climbed roughly 37%, 55% and 53% in China, Southeast Asia and India respectively. Southeast Asia and India posted larger gains mainly because import substitution costs, freight exposure and cargo delivery uncertainties magnified the impact of supply disruptions in the Middle East. By June, most risk premiums had been rolled back. However, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in July triggered a second upward rally once again from the bottom. Since the June trough, TDI prices have rebounded approximately 14% in China, 10% in Southeast Asia and 15% in India. Current Indian quotations merit particular attention, as these prices are quoted **without anti-dumping duties (ADD)**, whereas previous Indian price benchmarks included ADD. This indicates that actual pricing strength is more substantial than what superficial data comparisons suggest. TDI prices have not yet returned to the April peak, yet the price trend has reversed distinctly. The first rally saw a steep vertical surge starting from pre-crisis prices; the current second upturn began on a lower base, underpinned by renewed logistics risks, tight spot supply and buyers' demand to lock in forward cargo shipments.
4, PMDI: Import-reliant markets face stronger signals of price revaluation
Compared with TDI, PMDI exhibits stronger structural price revaluation signals, especially in import-dependent markets such as India and Southeast Asia. During the first rally, PMDI prices rose by around 45%, 63% and 65% in China, Southeast Asia and India respectively from pre-crisis levels to the April peak. The steeper gains registered in India and Southeast Asia stemmed from their higher reliance on imported supplies and limited capacity to absorb sudden price hikes imposed by suppliers. As such, PMDI serves as a typical example of how geopolitical risks can rapidly reshape pricing across import-led isocyanate markets. The second upward cycle has unfolded from the June trough, with PMDI prices climbing approximately 14%, 13% and 19% in China, Southeast Asia and India correspondingly. India has once again posted the sharpest rebound, highlighting the sensitivity of import-dependent markets to cargo security, freight expenses and suppliers' strict pricing discipline. Unlike demand-driven price increases, the current PMDI uptrend is mainly fueled by supply security concerns, import substitution costs and forward shipment risks. Although buyers may resist elevated quotations, tight cargo availability will likely compel them to secure September volumes.