Market Recap: Supply Recovery vs. Cautious Sentiment
Following the holiday, Propylene Oxide (PO) supply saw a slight recovery as several production units resumed operations. However, downstream buying sentiment turned cautious, leading to more flexible price negotiations and a slight downward shift in price levels. After a brief period of testing the market, the momentum for Flexible Slabstock Polyols slowed down. Sellers showed an increased willingness to move volumes, opening up more room for negotiations on actual orders. Meanwhile, Rigid Polyols saw narrowed fluctuations, with the market atmosphere remaining lukewarm as cost support and tepid demand kept each other in check.
Import & Export Data: Q1 Surge in Exports, Sustainability to be Verified
Combined with the import and export data for Polyether Polyols in the first quarter, we can observe additional shifts in the current market structure:
Imports: In Q1 2026, cumulative imports of Polyether Polyols totaled 61,300 tonnes, a 25.6% decrease compared to the same period in 2025, continuing the contraction trend of recent years. February saw a yearly low of 17,700 tonnes, while March recovered to 23,300 tonnes (still down 22.6% YoY). The continuous decline in imports reflects the increasing domestic production capacity for various grades, with domestic supply gradually replacing types that were previously import-dependent.
Exports: Export performance was robust in Q1, with cumulative exports reaching 974,000 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 48.6%. Specifically, March exports hit 421,500 tonnes, up 48.1% month-on-month, marking a high level for recent years. India, Turkey, and Vietnam were the top three destinations, with March volumes reaching 51,700 tonnes, 44,200 tonnes, and 45,000 tonnes respectively. Demand from Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East remains strong.
Outlook: If the export growth rate experiences a marginal slowdown after the Q1 peak, domestic supply pressure will need to be absorbed by internal demand, which may weigh on prices. Conversely, if exports remain strong, they will continue to support the domestic market. The current slight downward trend in Flexible Polyols prices may reflect the market's cautious expectations regarding the future pace of exports.
The Week Ahead: What to Expect?
The Propylene Oxide market is expected to remain range-bound next week, with a possibility of "weakening before stabilizing." Prices for raw materials like Propylene and Liquid Chlorine remain high but have potential room to soften, which may slightly weaken cost support. Given the current margin pressure (losses), the willingness of producers to adjust plant operating loads will be a key factor to watch.
For Flexible Polyols, the short-term market structure remains largely unchanged. With weak cost support and sellers still eager to ship, while downstream "rigid demand" procurement remains steady, the market lacks significant catalysts for a rally. Prices may have room for further negotiation, though the magnitude of adjustment is expected to be limited.
The above is this week's market observation. For more real-time quotes, in-depth analysis, and data services across the Polyurethane value chain, please visit the PUdaily official website and mobile platform to help you seize market opportunities.