Furniture and bedding: strength where it's needed, weakness where it hurts
The furniture picture was more bifurcated. In the UK, DFS Furniture delivered an encouraging print, with order volumes up 2.3%, underlying pre-tax profit of £31 million, and market share expansion toward roughly 40% - a constructive signal for UK flexible slabstock offtake into sofa cushioning and seat foam. Norway's Ekornes saw operating revenue rise 14% alongside a 3% order intake improvement, pointing to stabilisation in premium seating after an extended trough. IKEA's retail arm also reported profit gains, supported by a low-price strategy that has absorbed part of the inflationary cost pressure that weighed on its supplier business in prior periods.
Against this, Roche Bobois reported consolidated revenue of €87.1 million, a 5.6% decline at constant currency, reflecting continued pressure at the top end of the market where discretionary spend remains cautious. Its Cuir Center brand bucked the group trend with €10.7 million in revenue. The Italian export channel told a starker story: furniture exports fell 13.1% globally in January, with US-bound shipments down 28.5% - a direct consequence of trade-policy uncertainty and still-elevated US mortgage rates weighing on furniture demand attached to housing turnover.
The bedding and mattress segment remains the structurally strongest pocket within furniture-adjacent PU demand, with sector CAGR estimates in the high-6% range continuing to support converter investment in HR and viscoelastic grades. For European flexible slabstock producers, the combined picture - strong UK mid-market, recovering Nordic premium, weakening Italian export, steady mattress - argues for capacity discipline rather than a uniform restocking cycle.
Construction: weak entry point, but renovation holds the line for rigid foam
The construction narrative requires recalibration. According to Eurostat, EU construction output fell 2.0% year-on-year in January 2026, with building construction contracting a sharp 8.4% and civil engineering declining 4.6%. Only specialised construction activities - the segment that captures renovation and retrofit work - held positive territory at +0.7% YoY in the EU and +1.1% in the euro area. This internal composition is the key read for PU: new-build insulation demand is deteriorating, while retrofit-driven rigid PIR/PU board demand is still supported by the EU's Renovation Wave and the revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive.
Country-level dispersion was significant. Germany, the anchor European insulation market, was one of only three Member States posting both sequential and annual gains (+2.9% MoM, +1.1% YoY), a constructive signal for Covestro, BASF and regional system-house demand. Spain reversed sharply into contraction at -9.9% YoY after an exceptionally strong late-2025 run, and Poland posted the weakest print at -11.0% YoY, with meaningful implications for Central European PIR board utilisation. Hungary (-9.5%) and Austria (-7.6%) also weighed on the regional aggregate. On the positive side, Slovenia (+11.6%), Bulgaria (+4.0%) and Denmark (+3.3%) outperformed, though their aggregate footprint in European rigid foam demand is limited.
ING's 2026 outlook anticipates EU construction production to grow 1.5% for the full year, following a 1.5% decline in 2024 and flat activity in 2025, but the January entry point implies the recovery is more back-loaded than the annual forecast suggests. For rigid foam producers, the operating assumption into Q2 should be renovation-led growth with limited contribution from new residential or commercial starts.