Mattress Demand Is Shifting from a "Unit-Count Logic" to a "Kilogram Logic"
In the past, the most commonly used indicators to assess the condition of the mattress industry were output, sales volume, and export volume.
This approach works when the market is expanding rapidly: the more mattresses are sold, the higher foam demand usually is.
But when the mattress market enters a mature stage or a phase of competition for existing demand, the explanatory power of volume indicators declines. At that point, polyurethane demand is closer to the following formula:
Polyurethane demand = Number of mattresses × Foam usage per mattress
When mattress volume growth slows, changes in material usage per unit become an important variable affecting PU demand.
What the 2024–2026 export data show is precisely this "mismatch between quantity and weight":
No significant growth in quantity;
Total weight continues to rise;
The average weight per mattress has increased significantly;
Average export value per mattress, however, has basically not increased in step.
Therefore, when assessing how much the mattress industry will drive polyurethane demand in the future, we should not only ask "how many mattresses are sold?" but also "how many kilograms of foam are used in each mattress?"
Why Are Mattresses Getting Heavier?
The increase in mattress weight does not necessarily mean only that mattress sizes are getting larger, nor can it necessarily be attributed directly to consumption upgrading. At least several factors need to be considered at the same time.
First, the number and thickness of foam layers may be increasing.
In the past, some low-end foam mattresses had relatively simple structures, consisting mainly of a single support layer. Today's products may contain multiple layers, such as a base support layer, a high-resilience layer, a slow-rebound layer, and a comfort layer. Even if mattress dimensions remain unchanged, total foam usage will increase.
Second, foam density may be increasing.
For foam of the same volume, increasing density from 25 kg/m³ to 35 kg/m³ would theoretically increase weight by 40%. Therefore, a mattress does not need to become noticeably thicker; as long as higher-density foam is used, the unit product weight will increase.
Third, the structure of export products may be changing.
Different countries have different requirements for mattress size, firmness, support, and comfort layers. If export markets shift from low-density, single-layer products toward high-resilience, slow-rebound, or composite-structure products, the average weight will also be pushed higher.
Fourth, packaging and other auxiliary materials may also affect the weight recorded in customs statistics.
The mattress weight recorded in customs statistics is finished-product weight, not the net weight of polyurethane foam. Fabric, springs, adhesives, flame-retardant materials, packaging, and other accessories may all be included in the final weight.
Therefore, the increase in average weight can demonstrate that total material input per unit has increased, but it cannot directly prove that PU usage increased by 21.6% year on year.
To further confirm PU consumption per unit, it is necessary to combine company BOMs, foam thickness, foam density, the share of slow-rebound foam, and material formulations for mattresses with different structures.