Transmission effect: From the industrial chain to end-consumption
The collective price increases across the polyurethane chain will ultimately be transmitted to ordinary consumers in various forms. Rising procurement costs for furniture and home appliances will lead to successive price adjustments for sponge mattresses, upholstered furniture, and household insulated appliances. Building insulation materials, automotive interiors, and footwear products will also bear indirect cost pressures, leading to a mild uptick in daily consumption expenditure. Overall, this round of transmission is gradual rather than shock-like, with limited short-term impact on end-consumption, but it will be fully reflected in product selling prices over the medium to long term.
Outlook: High-price volatility pattern hard to break quickly, price center to shift systemically higher
In summary, the pattern of high-price volatility in the polyurethane chain is unlikely to change rapidly in the short term. Multiple factors, including high-cost support from crude oil and natural gas, incomplete overseas plant maintenance, and the long-term low operating rates of European capacity, collectively mean the supply side is unlikely to achieve effective loosening soon.
In the medium to long term, if geopolitical tensions ease and international oil prices retreat, domestic polyurethane prices may see a mild correction. However, it is crucial to recognize the fundamental difference between this market situation and previous cyclical fluctuations-the structural characteristics of the global MDI and TDI supply-demand gap have not been fundamentally resolved. The continued exit of high-cost European capacity signifies a profound reshaping of the global capacity landscape. The future price center for polyurethane products is highly likely to stabilize at levels higher than those seen in the past two years.
This round of price increases is not the peak of a cycle, but the starting point of a new pricing system.