As we enter October, the polyether polyol market continues to decline, searching for the bottom. Manufacturers' inventories have accumulated after the long holiday, providing some protection against partial reductions or expectations on the supply side.
Although prices, especially for soft foam, have returned to low levels seen earlier in the year, building confidence remains challenging. The upcoming launch of new production capacity in November and December has garnered little attention.
In comparison, none of the 19 items in the entire chain of polyether polyols, related raw materials, or foam products experienced an increase in October. TDI initially rose and then fell due to the ongoing dynamics of supply and market sentiment. Glycerin remained weak and stable, while other varieties exhibited a stable downward trend.
The entire range of polyether polyols has experienced a decline, with the decline in polyether being greater than that of the main raw material, propylene oxide. Consequently, the actual spot market price difference between Shandong soft foam polyether and cyclopropane has narrowed to the range of 100-200 yuan/ton within the month.
The polyether market witnessed a decline throughout October. Cyclopropane was priced around 9,200 yuan/ton in the middle of the year, while Shandong soft foam remained in the low range of 9,400-9,500 yuan/ton in the second half of the year. Combined with the routine maintenance of major factories in South China and the slowdown in demand, there was a temporary increase in polyether supply, and cyclopropane also experienced one of the few effective inventory reductions during the month. However, the sustainability of this trend was not strong, particularly due to the slow rotation of soft foam.
Northern factories accelerated their shipment pace, completely disrupting the market atmosphere. Compared to several conventional brands, only the decline of POP polyether has been relatively slow, while soft foam prices frequently hit new lows. While this has set a record low price since the second quarter, it has also significantly impacted the industry's sentiment and trading enthusiasm.
In mid-to-late October, supply fluctuations coexisted for polyether and cyclopropyl cyclopropane. On the polyether side, a unit in Singapore experienced a shutdown due to a malfunction, and a unit at a large factory in South China underwent planned maintenance. Regarding cyclopropyl ether, there were disruptions in raw material supply and reduced production capacity. Although there was a reduction in supply due to recovery after a short outage caused by faults and the resumption of production after a short outage at Binhua, it is estimated that the overall supply remains high compared to the first half of the year.