Although both polyol and TDI have witnessed dramatic price increases recently, the root causes behind their rallies differ greatly, creating separate market cycles for the two core PU raw materials.
Polyol's price surge is mainly cost-driven, dominated by propylene oxide and energy inflation. Its supply chain is more exposed to petrochemical intermediate outages and natural gas price swings. Its downstream consumption spreads widely across rigid insulation foam, coatings, adhesives and elastomers, with relatively scattered demand structure. In contrast, TDI's rally is supply-constrained. Concentrated plant shutdowns and limited global new capacity are the dominant factors. TDI consumption is highly concentrated in flexible foam for furniture and automotive interiors, making its price more sensitive to sudden supply interruptions.
Looking ahead to the market trend, polyol prices are more correlated with crude oil and PO plant restart schedules, and will show high volatility with cost fluctuations. TDI pricing will be dominated by plant maintenance schedules and global inventory levels. The two materials may decouple in the coming months: polyol may see bigger swings tied to oil and gas, while TDI will stay strong until supply recovers.
For downstream polyurethane converters, the current dual price rally highlights the importance of differentiated raw material sourcing plans. Companies need to separate procurement budgets for polyol and TDI, monitor upstream plant announcements closely, and balance spot buying and long-term contract volumes to mitigate margin pressure from raw material volatility.