The impact on the United States includes the following aspects:
Rising consumer costs: It is expected that the average annual expenditure of American households will increase by more than $5,000, and inflationary pressure will intensify.
Damage to agriculture and manufacturing: China's tax increases on soybeans, corn, etc. directly impact American agricultural states; high tariffs also hinder the return of manufacturing due to high labor costs and incomplete supply chains in the United States.
Challenges for China include:
Profit compression of export companies: In the short term, some companies that rely on the US market face reduced orders and rising costs.
Pressure on industrial chain adjustment: It is necessary to accelerate the transformation to high-end manufacturing and respond to the risk of supply chain relocation.
With the direction of US policy, tariffs may continue to escalate in the short term, but the long-term effect is limited. US think tanks pointed out that the marginal effect of the tariff war is decreasing, and it is difficult to achieve the goal of returning manufacturing.
China has enhanced its economic resilience through the "dual circulation" strategy (domestic and international dual circulation), while hedging US pressure through multilateral cooperation.
The United States may further impose tariffs in the near future, especially in the high-tech field, and China will respond through countermeasures, domestic demand expansion and regional cooperation. The game between the two sides will intensify global economic volatility, but China is expected to reduce long-term risks through structural reforms and market diversification.