Chery, BYD, SAIC and Geely were among the leading exporters in August. Based on publicly available CAAM data, they exported approximately 197,000, 189,000, 127,000 and 127,000 vehicles, respectively. Overseas sales have also expanded beyond a relatively small group of emerging markets to Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, ASEAN, and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Whether export growth continues will depend partly on trade barriers and the location of overseas capacity. EU countervailing measures and higher vehicle import barriers in some countries are encouraging automakers to consider local production, knock-down (KD) assembly and overseas supply chains. For materials suppliers in China, vehicles exported from Chinese factories and vehicles manufactured overseas create different demand for components and materials.
Vehicle production remains the starting point for polyurethane demand
Automotive polyurethane is used mainly in flexible seat foam, interiors such as instrument panels and door panels, headliners, acoustic insulation and vibration-damping materials, as well as coatings and adhesives. Total vehicle production declined slightly year on year in the first eight months. Growth in NEVs and exports therefore cannot yet be taken as evidence of a broad expansion in demand for TDI, MDI and related materials.
PUdaily research indicates that changes in automotive polyurethane demand are being driven more by the vehicle mix, material upgrades and export-related supply requirements. Rising NEV production and high export volumes have supported demand for seats, interiors and lightweight materials. Even so, vehicle production in China remains the first indicator to examine when assessing near-term demand.
The year-end recovery depends on domestic sales and exports
Sales may improve month on month during September–December, helped by the traditional September–October peak season, year-end sales drives and concentrated deliveries of new models. With domestic end-user demand still weak, however, the full-year outcome remains heavily dependent on exports and NEVs.
Based on sales through August and historical seasonal patterns, PUdaily estimates full-year 2026 vehicle sales at around 33–34 million units, potentially a slight decline from 2025. NEV sales could still grow at a rate around the double-digit threshold, with their share of full-year vehicle sales estimated at 53%–56%.
The next indicators to watch are whether domestic sales stop falling and whether exports remain high, alongside changes in NEV production and its share of total output. These indicators need to be assessed against total vehicle production in China. Automotive demand continues to support polyurethane consumption, but additional demand is more likely to come from specific models, material upgrades and export orders. Expectations should not rest on overall market expansion alone.
Data sources and definitions
Sources include the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), First Department of Equipment Industry, in its reports on the performance of China's automotive industry; CAAM monthly production and sales data; and PUdaily's compilation of public information and industry research. Production, sales, domestic sales, exports and NEV figures all follow CAAM definitions. They are not combined with customs declaration data or China Passenger Car Association retail sales data. Full-year 2026 figures are PUdaily estimates, not official forecasts.