Mattresses Are Getting Heavier, but Not Significantly More Expensive
If the increase in mattress weight came entirely from premiumization, export value should theoretically rise in step.
But the actual situation is not entirely so.
From January to July 2024, the average export value of this category of mattresses was about USD 5.23/kg; it fell to USD 4.85/kg in 2025 and further declined to USD 4.26/kg in January–July 2026.
In other words:
Mattresses are getting heavier, but the price realized per kilogram of product is falling.
Meanwhile, average export value per mattress has changed little: USD 24.05 in 2024, USD 23.68 in 2025, and USD 23.81 in the first seven months of 2026.
This suggests that the current increase in weight may not all correspond to premiumization and may also include the following factors:
More material is used under price pressure to maintain support and comfort;
Changes in export markets or product size mix;
More high-density, multi-layer foam, while end-market price competition remains intense;
Companies improve product performance through greater material input, but this has not been fully translated into higher selling prices.
For mattress manufacturers, this may mean higher material costs per unit, while profits do not necessarily improve in step.
For upstream polyurethane suppliers, the situation is different: even if mattress manufacturers face price competition, as long as the actual amount of foam consumed per unit increases, demand for TDI and polyether may still receive support.
China's Domestic Market Has Not Seen a Significant Expansion in Total Volume
Domestic data also show that the current furniture market is not simply in a phase of rapid growth.
Data from the China National Furniture Association show that from January to June 2025, cumulative retail sales of furniture products by enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 22.9% year on year; however, the full-year growth rate for 2025 slowed to 14.6%. By January–June 2026, this indicator had fallen by 3.7% year on year. These data show that after rapid growth driven by policy stimulus, China's domestic furniture market is entering a phase of slower growth or even adjustment.
It should be noted that retail sales of furniture products cover multiple categories and cannot be directly equated with mattress sales.
Data released by the Zhejiang Furniture Industry Association also show that from January to June 2026, total output of furniture enterprises above designated size in Zhejiang increased by 7.0% year on year, while upholstered furniture output fell by 6.23% year on year. Upholstered furniture includes sofas, mattresses, and other categories, so it likewise cannot directly substitute for mattress output, but it at least shows that the production side of upholstered furniture performed more weakly than the furniture industry as a whole.
With no significant expansion in domestic demand, the rise in unit weight of export products deserves more attention. It indicates that changes in polyurethane demand may increasingly come from product structure and material usage per unit, rather than simply from growth in mattress sales.
What Does This Mean for TDI and Polyether Demand?
Mattresses are an important application area for polyurethane flexible foam. Conventional polyether flexible foam, slow-rebound foam, and high-resilience foam systems may all be used in mattress production.
If mattresses continue to develop toward multi-layer structures, higher density, high resilience, and greater functionality, then even if mattress volumes remain stable, foam usage per unit may continue to rise. This will provide some support for polyether polyol and TDI demand.
Future incremental growth in the mattress industry may no longer come mainly from selling more mattresses, but from using more material and more foam in each mattress. Export volume is only one side of demand; unit weight provides another.
When mattress sales do not increase-or even decline slightly-but average weight continues to rise, the real change in the market may not be the number of mattresses, but product structure and material intensity.
Therefore, for the polyurethane value chain, the future focus should not only be on how many mattresses are sold, but also on:
Exactly how many kilograms of polyurethane are used in each mattress.