How Much Can Growing Vehicle Exports Support TDI Demand?-2

A larger NEV share does not automatically mean more TDI

According to CAAM, new energy vehicle (NEV) sales increased 11.1% year on year to 12.472 million in January–September, accounting for 53.6% of total new vehicle sales. Their share reached 61.6% in September.

The NEV market also showed a split between domestic and overseas demand. Domestic NEV sales fell 10.6% to 8.466 million in the first nine months, while exports rose 130% to 4.006 million. Overseas markets made an important contribution to the growth in total NEV sales.

The increasing share of NEVs is changing the mix of models and projects that automotive materials suppliers serve. A vehicle's powertrain alone, however, does not determine how much TDI it uses.

One automotive application for TDI is flexible polyurethane foam used in seating. Seating projects may use TDI, MDI or blended systems, depending on foam performance, formulation and manufacturing requirements. Seat configuration, foam weight and the chosen materials system can all affect TDI consumption per vehicle.

This is why suppliers need to look at individual models. Growing NEV sales can create more project opportunities, but whether those opportunities translate into TDI purchases depends on which seating programmes suppliers win and the formulations those programmes use.

Model production schedules, seating contract awards and formulation changes are worth tracking. NEV market share helps establish the direction of the market; these more detailed factors determine actual materials purchases.

TDI exports serve more than the automotive market

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, compiled by PUdaily, China's TDI exports totalled approximately 430,900 metric tonnes in January–August 2026. Imports were about 2,664 metric tonnes, leaving net exports of approximately 428,200 metric tonnes.

Monthly volumes fluctuated. TDI exports reached approximately 74,600 metric tonnes in April, fell to 46,200 in May and recovered to 56,600 in June. July and August volumes were about 48,000 and 50,700 metric tonnes, respectively, with August up approximately 5.6% month on month. Export volumes did not follow a steady upward trend.

The scale of TDI exports shows that overseas markets are an important outlet for Chinese supply. But the end uses of those shipments still need to be distinguished. Alongside automotive seating, TDI-based flexible foam is used in furniture and mattresses. Total raw material exports cannot be treated as a measure of overseas automotive demand.

Vehicle exports and TDI exports should be understood through their respective supply chains. Vehicles manufactured in China for export generate purchases of seating and related materials during production. TDI exported directly is processed overseas for various end markets. Both routes connect to overseas demand, but their volumes cannot be added together as incremental automotive TDI demand.

For domestic automotive materials suppliers, production schedules for export models and seating orders are more useful indicators. For TDI producers and traders, export destinations, customer applications and purchasing patterns are closer to actual demand. The automotive data cover January–September, while the TDI trade data cover January–August. Together they help describe industry conditions, but they do not establish that the two markets are growing in step.

Vehicle exports are supporting domestic suppliers, while NEVs are changing the mix of seating projects. How much TDI demand follows will depend on vehicle production, foam consumption per vehicle and formulation choices. Tracking those factors at the customer and order level gives a clearer view of how much support export growth can provide-and how long it may last.