China's automotive market sent mixed signals to materials suppliers in the first nine months of 2026. Domestic sales remained under pressure, exports grew, and new energy vehicles continued to gain market share. For the TDI industry, the effect on demand still comes down to vehicle production and orders for automotive seating.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), vehicle production and sales both fell 4.5% year on year in January–September, while exports rose 65.8%. Data from the General Administration of Customs of China, compiled by PUdaily, show that China exported approximately 430,900 metric tonnes of TDI in January–August, maintaining a substantial net export position. Both vehicles and raw materials are reaching overseas markets, but they serve different parts of the supply chain.
Vehicle exports support production and domestic suppliers
In January–September, China produced 23.246 million vehicles and sold 23.271 million. Domestic sales fell 22.4% year on year to 15.066 million, while exports increased 65.8% to 8.205 million. Exports accounted for approximately 35.3% of total vehicle sales over the period.
|
Indicator |
Jan–Sep 2026 |
Year-on-year change |
|
Vehicle production |
23.246 |
−4.5% |
|
Vehicle sales |
23.271 |
−4.5% |
|
Domestic vehicle sales |
15.066 |
−22.4% |
|
Vehicle exports |
8.205 |
+65.8% |
|
New energy vehicle sales |
12.472 |
+11.1% |
The gap between the declines in domestic sales and total production shows how exports are supporting vehicle manufacturing. This matters to seating and foam suppliers: vehicles made in China for export still need seats and other components, with the associated materials purchased during domestic production.
A decline in domestic vehicle sales therefore does not mean that automotive materials purchases in China will fall at the same rate. Suppliers need to track customers' production schedules and assess whether orders for export models can offset fewer orders for models sold domestically.
Even so, total vehicle production was still down 4.5%. Export growth has not yet been enough to return overall production to growth, which limits the support it can provide to TDI demand.
In September, vehicle sales reached 2.956 million, up 9% month on month but down 8.4% year on year. Exports rose 61.4% year on year to 1.053 million. The peak season brought a monthly recovery, yet domestic sales and exports continued to diverge. For suppliers, a customer's stable export programmes may say more about future orders than seasonal sales alone.