1. Background overview
In April 2025, the U.S. government launched a new round of trade protection policies, imposing a 10% universal tariff on almost all imported goods, and imposing additional "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries with large trade surpluses.Among them, Vietnam was levied 46%, Cambodia 49%, Thailand 36%, and Indonesia 32%.At the same time, as early as July last year, the United States also launched an anti-dumping investigation into large overhead refrigerators exported from Thailand, and it was initially determined that the dumping range was as high as 165.47%.This series of policies has dealt a heavy blow to the exports of Southeast Asian countries, especially to downstream industries such as refrigerators, upholstered furniture, and shoe materials with polyurethane as the core material.
2. The main influence of Southeast Asian countries
1. Vietnam
Export pressure has increased sharply: tariffs have skyrocketed to 46%, which has severely hit Vietnam's exports to the United States, especially furniture and footwear products.
Shoe material impact: Vietnam is one of the world's largest producers of sports shoes, and high tariffs will directly affect brand oem companies including Nike and Adidas.
Upholstered furniture impact: The United States is the largest export market for Vietnamese furniture. Increased tariffs will lead to a decrease in purchase orders and a simultaneous decline in demand for polyurethane flexible foams.
2. Thailand
Slowing economic growth: Tariff policies may reduce Thailand's GDP growth by 1 percentage point, and the government needs to consider fiscal stimulus.
Refrigerator exports are blocked: The United States has imposed an anti-dumping duty of 165.47% on Thai refrigerators, exports have almost stagnated, and the consumption of polyurethane insulation materials has been significantly reduced.
Chain reaction in the polyurethane industry: from raw material manufacturers to refrigerator manufacturers, they will face the dual pressure of rising inventory and deteriorating profitability.
3. Indonesia
Footwear injury: As one of the world's important footwear exporters, high tariffs have significantly compressed the export profits of Indonesian footwear companies, and orders may flow out to countries that have not been taxed.
The furniture industry has a collateral impact: the proportion of polyurethane foams used in furniture is high, and the weakness of the US market will compress related demand.
4. Cambodia and Malaysia
Cambodia: The export structure dominated by footwear and textiles will be greatly affected, and the demand for polyurethane shoe materials will decline significantly.
Malaysia: Although it has not been subject to a high reciprocal tax for the time being, the 10% general tariff has increased the export burden, and the export competitiveness of industries such as refrigerators and furniture has declined.