The Impact Of The 2026 U.S.-Iran War On The Global Polyurethane Industry-1

The outbreak of military conflict between the United States and Iran in 2026 has brought severe shocks to global energy markets, petrochemical supply chains and international trade. As a typical petrochemical industry, the polyurethane sector is highly dependent on crude oil, natural gas and upstream chemical raw materials, making it extremely vulnerable to geopolitical risks. This paper analyzes the short-term impacts and long-term changes brought by the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict on the global polyurethane industry, including raw material costs, supply chain stability, market demand and industrial structure.

First of all, the conflict has caused a sharp rise in global energy and raw material prices. Iran is one of the major oil and methanol exporting countries in the world, and the interruption of its energy and chemical exports has directly led to tight global supply. Crude oil prices soared rapidly in a short time, and the prices of key raw materials for polyurethane such as propylene oxide, toluene and methanol also increased significantly. Polyols, MDI and TDI, the core products of polyurethane, are facing huge cost pressure. Major manufacturers around the world have raised product prices to maintain profits, while small and medium-sized enterprises with weak cost tolerance have to reduce production or even stop production, resulting in increased volatility of the entire industrial chain.

Secondly, the conflict has severely damaged the stability of the global supply chain of polyurethane. The Strait of Hormuz, an important channel for global petrochemical transportation, has been greatly affected, with increased shipping risks, rising freight and insurance costs, and large-scale delays in transportation. Some chemical plants in Iran and surrounding areas have been forced to shut down, reducing the effective supply of MDI and TDI in the global market. Many manufacturers and traders have encountered problems such as delayed delivery and shortage of goods, and the supply and demand imbalance has further intensified.

In terms of demand, the polyurethane market presents a polarized trend. The demand in the conflict zones and surrounding areas has dropped sharply due to the suspension of industrial and construction activities. In the global market, the consumer and manufacturing industries have been affected to a certain extent, and the demand for polyurethane in automotive, furniture and home appliances has slowed down. However, the demand for construction insulation, cold chain logistics and new energy fields remains strong, supporting the basic stability of the total global demand. In the long run, post-war reconstruction will also bring new incremental demand to the polyurethane market.