1. The embarrassment of the policy "last train": the race between the time difference strategy and freight
First of all, we must mention the upcoming April policy node.
According to Announcement No. 2 of 2026 of the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, from April 1st, the value-added tax export tax refund for polyether polyols and other products will be cancelled.Affected by this policy, the operating rate of the main polyether plants quickly increased to a high level after the year, and the price of propylene oxide also rose to 8,000/ton after the festival.In order to lock in the tax refund bonus, some manufacturers have adopted a time-sensitive early strategy.According to current regulations, after the goods are shipped into a specific regulatory area and deemed to be exported, the tax refund can be locked in advance.
However, the original exquisite time difference game suffered a sudden geopolitical attack.
Since the United States and Israel jointly launched a strike on Iran on February 28, the situation has undergone qualitative changes.Up to now, the conflict situation has become more serious than yesterday.Unlike the previous "turn-based" conflicts, this conflict has shown a longer duration and more violent counterattack.The restricted passage of the Strait of Hormuz, and the subsequent emergency tariff increases announced by major ship owners on routes in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and even Europe, completely disrupted the calculation formula of logistics costs.
There are two core contradictions here：
Separation of property rights and logistics: Although the goods have completed the "export" procedures, the final destination port is Europe, the Middle East or Africa.As long as the ship is not actually loaded and leaves the port, the skyrocketing sea freight will constitute a substantial "floating loss" or resistance to picking up the goods.
Generalization of route premiums: The conflict is not only affecting direct routes in the Middle East.Due to the possible long-term detour of the Cape of Good Hope and the reallocation of shipping companies' capacity to deal with risks, the benchmark freight rates for European and Mediterranean routes have been pushed up across the board.
The conclusion is becoming clearer: those stocks that lock in tax refunds in advance, although they have kept the "bottom line" of the policy, have to face the "cost ceiling" of sea freight.This part of the premium will eventually be negotiated and redistributed between overseas buyers and domestic sellers.
2. The "blockade" of Hormuz: not only oil, but also the lifeblood of chemical industry
When it comes to the deep impact of this geopolitical conflict on the PO/polyether industry chain, the market often first focuses on the cost transmission of crude oil to propylene.But in addition to the raw material port, we also need to look at it in more detail.The global production capacity of propylene oxide and polyether is highly concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the direct production capacity of polyether in the Middle East is limited, as the "heart" of global petrochemical raw materials, once it stops beating, it will cause severe systemic risks.
1. Pulsed impact of direct raw material cost (propylene/crude oil)
Crude oil prices currently contain at least a significant geographic risk premium.If the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, the surge in crude oil prices will directly increase the prices of naphtha and propylene monomers.Although there are many domestic PO processes, propylene in the chlorohydrin method accounts for the vast majority of PO production costs.The passive increase in the raw material side will force PO companies to passively increase prices in the context of demand that has not yet fully recovered, compressing the profit margins of downstream polyethers.
2. The "butterfly effect" of European energy costs and the double-edged sword of supply contraction
Natural gas from the Middle East is an important energy supplement to European chemical industry.Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz will further intensify Europe's concerns about natural gas supplies.It is worth thinking deeply about: high energy costs have previously forced European chemical plants to reduce operating rates and even shut down production capacity. Intuitively, this seems to be a positive for Chinese exports, but behind this is a "structural supply gap" and "shrinking demand" coexist in a contradictory pattern. The shutdown of European installations will indeed reduce regional supply and leave market space for Chinese polyethers.However, we must clearly realize that the root cause of the shutdown of European installations is the double squeeze of weak demand and high costs.However, if the factory is unable to maintain operations due to the economic recession or weak demand in downstream automotive, construction and other industries, then "reduced supply" and "shrinking demand" occur at the same time.Therefore, a more accurate expression is: China's polyether exports may face a contradictory market where "supply is clear but demand is also inflexible."In the short term, European buyers will generate demand for replenishment due to unstable local supply, which is indeed good for Chinese exports; however, in the medium and long term, if the European macroeconomic continues to be sluggish, the total demand for polyether will shrink.This means that Chinese exporters need to compete for more discerning customers in a shrinking market, rather than simply sitting back and enjoying the benefits.
3. Potential alternative pressure for methanol-PO route
Although the mainstream domestic PO process does not rely on methanol, we must pay attention to the substitution effect.Iran is the largest source of methanol imports from China.The current operation of the Iranian plant is blocked, and the price of methanol has risen sharply.Although methanol is not the mainstream raw material for PO, the strength of methanol will increase the valuation of the entire C1/C3 chemical basket, which will support PO in terms of price comparison effect.