What Is The Future Production Capacity Trend Of Acrylonitrile?

Acrylonitrile is an important raw material for the three major synthetic materials (plastics, synthetic rubber, and synthetic fibers). Its upstream raw materials are propylene and liquid ammonia, and its downstream raw materials are mainly acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) resin, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide. , carbon fiber, etc., are widely used in aerospace, wind power generation, automobiles, machinery, electronics and other fields. However, my country once needed to import large quantities of this basic material, which has multiple uses and is available in large quantities.
Since 2016, my country's acrylonitrile imports have dropped significantly, and its dependence on imports has also dropped significantly. In 2016 and 2017, my country's acrylonitrile imports were 306,100 tons and 270,800 tons respectively, and the import dependence was 13.7% and 12% respectively. While promoting import substitution, Chinese acrylonitrile companies have also accelerated their pace of participating in the global market and filling gaps in overseas markets.
There are two main industrial production methods for acrylonitrile: propylene ammoxidation and propane ammoxidation. At present, more than 90% of the world's acrylonitrile plants use the propylene ammoxidation method for production. The main raw materials are propylene and synthetic ammonia, and the by-products are hydrocyanic acid, acetonitrile and ammonium sulfate.
In 2022, China's share of global acrylonitrile production capacity reached 44.7%, making it the region with the largest acrylonitrile production capacity in the world.
In the next five years, as refining and chemical projects are put into operation one after another, the domestic acrylonitrile product production capacity will also increase significantly. According to the statistics of the planned construction units, China's total acrylonitrile production capacity will be 4.399 million tons/year in 2023, and there are still 3.26 million tons/year of new production capacity planned to be put into use during 2024-2027. By 2027, the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity is expected to reach 765.9 Millions of tons/year, China's acrylonitrile production capacity will grow at an average rate of 16.6% from 2023 to 2027. The ABS industry, which is the main demand growth point in the downstream field, is also facing a situation of oversupply, so the overall demand growth is far less than the supply growth. Starting from 2025, we will enter a new round of capacity expansion cycle, when the overcapacity situation will become more prominent.
Taking into account the possible closure of some smaller and older units, it is estimated that my country's acrylonitrile production capacity will reach about 7 million tons/year in 2027, and the acrylonitrile industry will be in a state of oversupply for a long time in the future.