In 2025, the Southeast Asian TDI market will still show the structural characteristics of being highly dependent on imports.Almost all demand in the region needs to be met by external supply. Among them, China, Japan and South Korea are still the main sources, while a small number of sources from the Middle East and India provide certain marginal adjustments during price fluctuations.With the re-layout of the global supply chain, the import structure of Southeast Asia is gradually dividing, and countries are further inclined to choose supply channels with lower tariffs and higher stability, so that supply competition shows a clearer gradient.
In contrast, India, as the only country in South Asia with local TDI production capacity, is rapidly increasing its regional influence.As the only TDI manufacturer in India, GNFC has a design production capacity of 67,000 tons/year.It is expected that India's domestic production will remain at the level of xx0,000 tons in 2025, and about 70,000-80,000 tons will still need to be imported to meet the growing downstream demand, so that its apparent consumption will reach the scale of xx0,000 tons.The long-term implementation of the anti-dumping duty policy has effectively protected GNFC's operating load and market share, and it has also given India a unique advantage in terms of supply security.
It is worth noting that in the past, India's imports were mainly dependent on Japan, because Japanese TDI faced lower anti-dumping duties.However, as Japan will reduce its production capacity from 120,000 tons to 50,000 tons in July 2025, its export capacity will be significantly tightened, resulting in a rapid increase in the share of China and South Korea in the Indian market, and promote a new reorganization of the regional supply pattern.
From the demand side, upholstered furniture is still the core consumer sector of TDI in Southeast Asia and India.The furniture export chains of Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries continue to expand, while India's local household consumption has shown greater resilience.Both regions are showing an upgrading trend: the permeability of memory foam, high-density outdoor foam, antibacterial and functional materials has gradually increased, promoting a steady increase in unit usage.PUdaily expects that the upholstered furniture industry in Southeast Asia will maintain a growth rate of about 3% in 2025, while in India, driven by urbanization, middle-class expansion and the popularity of brand mattresses, the growth rate is expected to remain at a high level of 7%.
In the automotive field, Southeast Asia as a whole presents a structure of "short-term pressure and long-term upward".Between 2024 and 2025, high interest rates and tighter consumer credit will put pressure on production and sales.However, regional countries are actively promoting the layout of the electric vehicle industry chain through policies-including Thailand's EV3.0/3.5 plan, Indonesia's battery industry incentives, Malaysia's investment facilitation policy, and the Philippines' tariff reform.These measures will promote the increase of EV penetration, drive the demand for seat foam, NVH materials and lightweight components, and provide medium-term support for TDI.It is expected that in mid-to-late 2025, driven by the relief of macro pressures and the centralized listing of new models, automobile demand in Southeast Asia is expected to enter a recovery channel.The performance of the Indian automotive industry is even more eye-catching. Thanks to manufacturing policies, local brand expansion and the rapid rise in EV sales, the structural growth of high-end models, SUVs and electric vehicles has made it one of the most potential markets for TDI growth in South Asia in the future.
Judging from the price and outlook, global TDI will show a "strong before and weak after" structure in 2024, and the price will fluctuate upward after entering 2025.The European market was affected by Covestro's force majeure event, and the tightening of supply led to cross-regional transfers. Exports from Asia (especially China, South Korea, and the Middle East) to Europe increased, resulting in tight supply in Asia.However, as European supply gradually resumes at the end of 2025, prices will also fall rapidly.Overall, the TDI market in 2025 will still revolve around installation start-up, policy changes, cross-regional arbitrage and demand upgrading, and prices are expected to maintain a pattern of volatile operation.