In the first half of 2025, the global TDI (toluene diisocyanate) supply and demand pattern is expected to show a "tight balance" trend, with significant regional differentiation characteristics, and the price center may move up moderately. The following analysis is carried out from both the supply and demand sides:
Supply side: capacity expansion slows down, and regional structural contradictions are prominent
1. Global capacity growth slows down: In 2023-2024, the global TDI new capacity will be released in a concentrated manner (such as China Wanhua Chemical and BASF Zhanjiang Base). In the first half of 2025, the new capacity will be limited, and the global total capacity is expected to be about 4.2 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of less than 3%. Some old devices in Europe may maintain low-load operation due to high energy costs, and the regional supply gap needs to rely on Asian imports.
2. **China's environmental protection policy pressure**: The domestic "dual carbon" policy continues to advance, the environmental protection costs of small and medium-sized production capacity are rising, the industry concentration is further improved, and the bargaining power of leading companies is enhanced.
Demand side: Emerging fields drive growth, traditional industries are under pressure
1. Emerging demand: The trend of lightweighting of new energy vehicles promotes the application of polyurethane composite materials. The annual growth rate of TDI demand in battery pack sealing and interior decoration may exceed 8%; green building policies are strengthened, and the demand for thermal insulation materials is recovering.
2. Differentiation of traditional demand: The furniture industry is dragged down by the downturn in European and American real estate, and the demand for soft foam is weak; the demand for footwear materials, coatings and other fields is supported by the recovery of Southeast Asian manufacturing, and the demand is marginally improved. Global demand growth is expected to be about 4%, with a total volume of 2.8 million tons.
Supply and demand balance and price outlook
1. Regional contradictions intensify: China may maintain loose supply and demand due to its production capacity advantages, and its export competitiveness will be enhanced; Europe relies on imports and has high logistics costs, and the price premium is significant.
2. **Price center moves up**: The high fluctuation of crude oil prices supports the cost of toluene, and the downstream replenishment cycle is opened. In the first half of the year, the price of TDI may remain in the range of 18,000-22,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5%-8% year-on-year.
Risk Warning
1. Geopolitics leads to unexpected fluctuations in energy and transportation costs;
2. Breakthroughs in bio-based polyurethane replacement technologies are accelerating;
3. The escalation of trade barriers between Europe and the United States and China disturbs the export pattern.
In summary, the TDI market in the first half of 2025 will show the characteristics of "rigid supply and structural growth in demand", and companies need to focus on regional price difference arbitrage opportunities and incremental space in downstream emerging fields.